Meals methods within the Center East and North Africa (MENA) area face more than a few structural vulnerabilities and exterior shocks because of the area’s excessive dependence on meals imports, publicity to geopolitical tensions, useful resource shortage, and emerging fiscal pressures, that have made meals delivery chains an increasing number of fragile. Fresh bottlenecks led to via conflicts, commodity charge volatility, and logistics and climate-related stresses have underscored the urgency of establishing resilient meals methods. This paper explores the hazards confronting meals delivery chains within the MENA area and evaluates pathways to improve resilience throughout the Drivers–Pressures–State–Have an effect on–Reaction (DPSIR) framework. The paper gives coverage suggestions that emphasise different sourcing corridors, resilient logistics and garage networks, enhanced regional cooperation, advanced risk-financing mechanisms, climate-adaptive home manufacturing, and more potent meals governance methods.
Attribution: Shruti Jain and Leigh Mante, “Rethinking Resilient Food Systems: Mitigating Food Supply Chain Shocks in the MENA Region,” ORF Occasional Paper No. 532, Observer Analysis Basis, March 2026.
Advent
Meals safety exists when all other people have steady bodily and financial get entry to to satisfactory, secure, and nutritious meals that meets nutritional wishes and personal tastes for a wholesome lifestyles.[1] It’s outlined via 4 pillars: 1) the bodily availability of meals; 2) financial and bodily get entry to to meals; 3) meals utilisation; and four) the stableness of those parts over a time frame. Attaining meals safety will depend on keeping up the integrity of meals methods—the interconnected parts and actions concerned within the manufacturing, processing, distribution, and preparation of meals.[2] As those methods are an increasing number of liable to disruptions, the concept that of meals formula resilience—the capability to supply satisfactory, suitable, and out there meals over the years and throughout ranges within the face of shocks—turns into important. [3]
Within the Center East and North Africa (MENA), meals formula resilience is below consistent power. The area is house to roughly 519 million other people and is projected to develop at an annual price of one.7 %, with populations an increasing number of transferring from rural to city spaces.[4],[5],[6] The area has lengthy suffered from meals lack of confidence because of restricted arable land and water sources, geopolitical tensions and clash, financial instability, structural poverty, and intensifying weather shocks. In combination, those elements build up reliance on meals imports and disclose the area to disruptions in commerce corridors, constraining get entry to to secure, inexpensive, and nutritious meals. Meals delivery chain shocks confer with exterior disruptions that prohibit meals availability, get entry to, and diet, both quickly or over extended classes.[7]
Variations in financial construction and political balance throughout MENA international locations form their current capacities to take in and adapt to shocks within the meals delivery chain. Given the upward push and extended length of regional conflicts, mixed with irritated droughts and water shortage, strategising how you can take care of meals formula resilience amidst exterior shocks is the most important.
Desk 1: MENA Nations: Review
Nation
Inhabitants, Overall (2024)
Source of revenue-Stage and Fragility (International Financial institution)
Oil-Importer/Oil-Exporter Standing
International Meals Safety Index 2022 Score out of 113
Employment in Agriculture (% of Overall Employment)
Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing (Price Added to GDP)
Algeria
46,814,308
Center-Source of revenue
Creating Oil Exporter
68
9% (2023)
13.1 % (2023)
Bahrain
1,588,670
Top-Source of revenue
Oil Exporter
38
1% (2023)
0.3% (2023)
Djibouti
1,168,722
Center-Source of revenue
Creating Oil Importer
–
1% (2023)
2.6% (2024)
Egypt
116,538,258
Center-Source of revenue
Creating Oil Importer
77
19% (2023)
13.7% (2024)
Iran
91,567,738
Center-Source of revenue
Creating Oil Exporter
–
14% (2023)
13% (2024)
Iraq
46,042,015
Center-Source of revenue with War
Creating Oil Exporter
–
8% (2023)
3.4% (2024)
Israel
9,974,400
Top-Source of revenue
–
24
1% (2023)
1.3% (2024)
Jordan
11,552,876
Center-Source of revenue
Creating Oil Importer
47
3% (2023)
5.1% (2024)
Kuwait
4,973,861
Top-Source of revenue
Oil Exporter
50
2% (2023)
0.5% (2024)
Lebanon
5,805,962
Center-Source of revenue with War
Memorandum
–
3% (2023)
1.0% (2023)
Libya
7,381,023
Center-Source of revenue with War
Memorandum
–
9% (2023)
1.7% (2024)
Malta
574,346
Top-Source of revenue
–
–
1% (2023)
0.2% (2023)
Morocco
38,081,173
Center-Source of revenue
Creating Oil Importer
57
30% (2023)
10.1% (2024)
Oman
5,281,538
Top-Source of revenue
Oil Exporter
35
6% (2023)
2.6% (2024)
Qatar
2,857,822
Top-Source of revenue
Oil Exporter
30
2% (2023)
0.3% (2024)
Saudi Arabia
35,300,280
Top-Source of revenue
Oil Exporter
41
3% (2023)
2.5% (2024)
Syria
24,672,760
Low-Source of revenue with War
Memorandum
113
15% (2023)
43.1% (2022)
Tunisia
12,277,109
Center-Source of revenue
Creating Oil Importer
62
13% (2023)
9.3% (2023)
United Arab Emirates
10,876,981
Top-Source of revenue
Oil Exporter
23
1% (2023)
0.7% (2023)
The West Financial institution and Gaza
5,289,152
Center-Source of revenue with War
Creating Oil Importer
–
6% (2022)
5.7% (2022)
Yemen
40,583,164
Low-Source of revenue with War
Memorandum
111
29% (2023)
28..7% (2018)
Supply: Authors’ personal, the usage of knowledge from the International Financial institution[8],[9],[10] and Economist Have an effect on[11]
Technique
The geographical scope of the MENA area on this paper contains Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Malta, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, the West Financial institution and Gaza, and Yemen. The area is analysed the usage of the International Financial institution’s cross-sectional classifications of revenue, hydrocarbon standing, and clash; (1) higher-income international locations, together with Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Oman; (2) middle-income international locations, together with growing oil-exporting Algeria and Iran and oil-importing Jordan, Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, and Djibouti; (3) middle-income, conflict-affected international locations, together with oil-exporting Libya and Iraq and oil-importing Lebanon and the West Financial institution and Gaza; and (4) low-income, conflict-affected international locations, together with Syria and Yemen (see Desk 1).
The paper utilises the DPSIR framework (Riding Forces–Pressures–State–Have an effect on–Responses) to guage elements influencing MENA’s meals delivery chain shocks and responses. This framework hyperlinks environmental stressors to market-led shocks, which have an effect on meals delivery chain balance within the area. Riding forces come with structural setting that render MENA’s meals methods prone, equivalent to demographic developments, agro-climatic prerequisites, the food-energy-water nexus, and political economic system dynamics. Pressures that have an effect on affordability, get entry to, and availability stand up from exterior occasions equivalent to geopolitical conflicts and pandemics.
The paper utilises the International Financial institution’s Logistics Efficiency Index variables to measure commerce and logistics pressures, equivalent to transport disruptions, and chokepoints, various throughout MENA international locations. The ‘state’ measures the prevailing prerequisites following the environmental stressors, together with financial and monetary demanding situations affecting meals inflation and garage losses. ‘Impact’ contains financial macro-implications, equivalent to emerging calories intake for get entry to to potable water, dietary developments, excessive import expenses, longer transport intervals, and meals wastage. ‘Responses’ measures the present mechanisms that cut back pressures and mitigate affects—this contains meals and water import diversification, logistics capability development, charge stabilisation, and useful resource optimisation. In line with those findings, the paper suggests coverage suggestions adapted to MENA international locations.
Determine 1: DPSIR Framework
Supply: Authors’ personal
Determine 2: DPSIR Technique
Supply: Authors’ personal
Structural Vulnerabilities and Contextual Realities Shaping MENA Meals Programs
Water Shortage
The MENA area faces acute water shortage, pushed via weather exchange and its restricted proportion—round 1 %—of worldwide freshwater sources.[12] Emerging call for from agriculture, industrialisation, calories manufacturing, and urbanisation is hanging expanding rigidity on water provides, with intake in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) international locations exceeding 500 litres in keeping with particular person in keeping with day.[13] One of the most maximum water-stressed international locations come with Kuwait, Cyprus, Oman, Qatar, and Bahrain.[14] By means of 2050, it’s estimated that two-thirds of MENA international locations can have lower than 200 cubic meters of renewable water sources in keeping with capita in keeping with yr, in comparison to 7,000 cubic meters in different areas.[15]
Determine 3: Water Tension Ratings
Supply: Aqueduct Nation Ratings[16]
Water shortage within the MENA area is undermining meals methods. As roughly 70 % of agriculture is rain-fed, water shortage results in an general decline in agricultural manufacturing and adjustments in crop sorts.[17] Saudi Arabia is projected to have the biggest losses in agricultural productiveness, with a few 65 % relief from present ranges via 2050.[18] In the similar length, the Republic of Yemen and the Syrian Arab Republic are projected to lose 35 % and 13 % in their agricultural manufacturing. In a similar fashion, Iran and Lebanon will lose about 5 % in their manufacturing. Water shortage will even have an effect on the crop baskets, with the substitute of staples with much less water-intensive vegetation. For example, the federal government of Egypt has decreased the felony rice cultivation space because of water shortages and Saudi Arabia plans to section out wheat and corn manufacturing to protected water availability.[19] Water shortage’s have an effect on at the agricultural sector has additionally prolonged to the livelihoods of the manufacturers, particularly smallholder farmers. It’s been seen to probably cause migration within the MENA area to city centres.[20]
Many MENA international locations these days depend on desalinated water for fast intake. Saudi Arabia holds probably the most international’s biggest desalination plant life, together with the Al Jubail facility, which produces over 1.4 million cubic meters of water every single day. The Saline Water Conversion Company produces about 20 % of the sector’s desalinated water.[21] Greater adoption of desalination, alternatively, has drawbacks; major is the rise in salinity ranges within the Gulf and Purple Sea, which has a unfavorable have an effect on at the marine biodiversity, species endurance, fisheries, and coastal communities. Additionally, desalination results in heightened use of calories—Saudi Arabia on my own consumes about 300,000 barrels of oil in keeping with day to persistent the plant life.[22] Moreover, the huge, mounted nature of desalination amenities and their integration into commercial and home methods heightens their vulnerability to kinetic assaults, as demonstrated within the Israel-US-Iran clash.[a],[23] Due to this fact, the area will have to have a look at long-term sustainable answers to deal with increasing water shortage issues.
Determine 4: Agricultural Manufacturing Losses via 2050
Supply: International Financial institution, 2023[24]
The Herbal Useful resource Curse
Sure North African international locations are endowed with fertile land and free-flowing water sources, but this has strengthened the ‘resource curse’, expanding the chance of clash over useful resource governance, inhibiting growth against resilient meals methods, and heightening water lack of confidence.[25] Transboundary control and regulate of the area’s scarce water sources have traditionally represented a centre of geopolitical pageant. The Nile River, which flows via Ethiopia and Egypt, exemplifies those tensions, with competing nationwide calls for. In spite of discussion coordination efforts led via the African Union, the Ecu Union, and the USA, the international locations failed to near a binding settlement. Ethiopia prefers a versatile and sovereign way to dam control, whilst Egypt prefers mounted felony promises.[26] Amidst the diplomatic gridlock, Ethiopia inaugurated its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in 2025, which it pursued unilaterally to protected a home and exportable persistent supply, improve home agriculture, and support regional affect. Then again, the dam poses dangers to downstream water get entry to in Egypt and Sudan. Egypt’s agriculture sector consumes 79 % of Egypt’s freshwater withdrawals. Given projected inhabitants will increase in Egypt coupled with expanding drought, home water shortages are anticipated to accentuate.[27]
In spite of get entry to to land and water sources for agriculture, those international locations have fallen brief in growing holistic meals methods because of a manifestation of the useful resource curse mixed with exterior affect. Donors and the worldwide neighborhood have inspired insurance policies that favour monocropping methods for coins crop exports, that have depleted water in addition to land grabbing, the place land is transferred from smallholder farmers to overseas buyers and enterprises.[28],[29] Those methods have traditionally ruled the MENA area’s meals safety time table, as observed in Morocco and Tunisia. Land monopolisation for the economic manufacturing of hybrid non-local sorts has exhausted soil and depleted water availability in Morocco. Likewise, the inflow of agricultural investments within the Tunisian village of “El-Ititez 1” for jojoba manufacturing and export has depleted land and water.[30]
Pressures: Headwinds for Meals Safety and Meals Machine Resilience
Geopolitical Affects and Tensions
The upward push in world shocks, together with the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions just like the Russia-Ukraine battle and US-Israel-Iran clash, has threatened meals cost chain balance and negatively impacted family capability to manage, resulting in compromised dietary results. MENA international locations show off various levels of vulnerability to meals delivery chain shocks, relying on political-economic instability, hydrocarbon dependency, and meals import percentages.
COVID-19 Pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic destabilised meals cost chains on each the availability and insist facets and greater meals costs. Even though international locations skilled equivalent affects, equivalent to labour and uncooked subject material shortages, the severity of affects is distinguishable between high- and middle- to lower-income international locations.[31] Right through the pandemic, high-income international locations skilled supply-driven affects equivalent to logistical bottlenecks and provide chain disruptions, whilst lower-income international locations noticed demand-driven affects because of a lack of revenue and greater linkages to poverty, which decreased their buying persistent and changed their capability to make nutritious meals intake alternatives.[32]
Within the MENA area, the start of the pandemic affected meals availability lower than right through the 2008 financial disaster. Conversely, meals safety dimensions of accessibility and utilisation shifted to a miles better extent. Meals accessibility used to be limited via adjustments in meals delivery prices, meals help distribution mechanisms, and meals shortages in supermarkets and compounded via financial uncertainty, abrupt task losses, and meals charge hikes.[33] This dating used to be extra pronounced in lower-income international locations, which skilled better income-responsiveness because of emerging poverty and decreased revenue ranges, contributing to a contraction in meals intake call for.[34] Let’s say, the pandemic contributed to over 10 million full-time task losses within the MENA area, influencing family capability to conform to adjustments in meals costs.[35]
Russia’s Battle in Ukraine and US-Israel War with Iran
The Russia-Ukraine battle has ended in emerging calories costs additional exacerbating fertiliser prices, since herbal gasoline is very important for its manufacturing.[38] Likewise, delays in Liquefied Herbal Gasoline (LNG) manufacturing and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the USA and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February straight away raised Center East urea costs.[39] Moreover, international locations deploying trendy applied sciences to optimise agricultural operations also are experiencing greater prices on account of the Russia-Ukraine battle since applied sciences depend on solid calories sources.[40] Within the momentary, increased oil costs and gasoline shortages have raised manufacturing prices, contributing to greater meals costs.[41]
MENA’s reliance on Ukraine for almost one-third of its cereal imports heightened vulnerability to offer disruptions.[42] Then again, meals availability vulnerabilities numerous in step with the political and financial context of every nation. Center-income international locations like Algeria and Jordan skilled average vulnerability because of decrease export dependence ranges. They spoke back to the surprise via diversifying commerce partnerships to take care of the commerce glide of staple cereal merchandise.[43] Creating oil-importing international locations like Egypt and Tunisia had been somewhat prone because of excessive import dependence charges compounded via increasing populations in Egypt and interior political conflicts in Tunisia. They overcame meals availability pressures via increasing meals garage capacities and wheat manufacturing infrastructure or securing meals relief from Gulf states.[44] Decrease- to middle-income international locations with clash, like Lebanon, Libya, and Yemen, had been extremely liable to the disaster because of multiplied results from interior political-economic instability and meals relief reliance which used to be entangled in not on time shipments.[45]
Conflicts inside MENA can injury infrastructure, impose roadblocks or sanctions, and disrupt the motion of products, weakening meals delivery chains. For instance, the closure of key maritime chokepoints right through the Israel-US-Iran clash compromised agricultural offers, leaving exports headed to MENA stranded at port because of heightened freight prices.[46] Meals additionally turns into much less out there in clash zones. Expanding political instability can result in overlook of the agriculture sector, leading to a loss of improve for farmers searching for agricultural improve, credit score, or insurance coverage.[47]
Present Situation of the MENA Economies
Financial and Monetary Demanding situations
As MENA international locations are excessive meals importers, geopolitical pressures and exterior shocks to meals cost chains can have an effect on home meals costs. Home meals costs within the area also are liable to forex depreciation, particularly for conflict-prone spaces equivalent to Yemen and Lebanon, as a weaker native forex will increase retail meals costs and decreases disposable earning. For example, because of ongoing conflicts and weather results in Lebanon, the typical meals inflation in 2025 remained as excessive as 23.9 %.[48]
Crude oil and agricultural commodity costs are carefully correlated, as oil is a key enter in agricultural processing and transportation.[49] Upper oil costs spill over to raised costs for delivery and fertiliser, which results in an build up in retail meals costs. Volatility in oil costs can immediately have an effect on the international locations’ alternate charges, fiscal capability, and subsidies. Thus, with reducing oil costs for oil exporters equivalent to Algeria or Iraq, forex weak spot and spikes in meals inflation had been seen.[50] Moreover, a correlation between biofuel and crude oil costs used to be established, through which biofuel changed into extra aggressive as crude oil costs greater—main to raised meals costs, in particular for sugar, maize, and vegetable oils.[51] To struggle excessive inflation, a number of MENA international locations have resorted to excessive meals subsidies, which have an effect on fiscal prices in the long run.[52] Nations such because the UAE, Algeria, and Egypt followed new charge ceilings and loosened import restrictions, which eased home inflation however got here at a value of declining executive profit.[53]
Desk 2: Meals Inflation in Choose MENA Nations 2025
Nation
Meals Inflation 2025 (Yr on Yr %)
Lebanon
23.9
Egypt
6.9
Tunisia
5.7
Morocco
0.4
Jordan
0.8
Saudi Arabia
1.5
UAE
0.4
Supply: Buying and selling Economics[54]
Funding in agriculture and meals cost chains is the most important to verify meals formula resilience. It creates multiplier results for allied sectors and complements meals manufacturing potency. Sector investments toughen meals delivery chains, selling regional and overseas connectivity.[55] In maximum MENA international locations, alternatively, meals safety is threatened via inadequate private and non-private funding in agriculture. For North African international locations, the typical proportion of agriculture in executive expenditure is above the worldwide common; alternatively, this quantity is rather small when bearing in mind the proportion of agriculture within the area’s Gross Home Product (GDP). The Meals and Agriculture Group’s Agriculture Orientation Index (AOI)[b] signifies that, excluding for Kuwait, all MENA international locations show decrease agriculture expenditure than their GDP weight. On common, the AOI for North African international locations stays low, whilst the index stays best in 3 Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)[c] international locations—Kuwait, the UAE, and Bahrain.[56] Lebanon, Algeria, and Egypt have probably the most lowest AOI within the area.
Along with funding in agriculture and agricultural cost chains, speedy weather exchange in MENA calls for scaling up adaptation finance for the adoption of climate-smart agriculture (CSA). Within the area, the principle supply of investment is public, within the type of grants and price range. The fund, alternatively, has been basically focused at mitigation somewhat than adaptation, which is needed for the adoption of CSA.[57] Whilst a big proportion of farmland used to be below small-scale control, solely about 1.5 % of weather finance used to be gained for small-scale agri-food methods within the area.
Desk 3: AOI Index for MENA Nations
Nation
AOI Index (2019-21)
Algeria
0.20
Bahrain
0.58
Egypt
0.11
Iran
NA
Iraq
NA
Jordan
0.13
Kuwait
1.18
Lebanon
0.08
Libya
NA
Mauritania
0.25
Morocco
0.30
Oman
0.25
Qatar
NA
Saudi Arabia
0.31
Sudan
NA
Syrian Arab Republic
0.23
Tunisia
0.35
United Arab Emirates
0.61
Yemen
NA
Somalia
NA
Supply: FAO[58]
Have an effect on of the Drivers and Pressures on Meals Resilience in MENA
Import Dependence
Local weather change-driven affects on decrease agricultural manufacturing within the MENA area accounted for a upward push in meals costs. As meals call for stays inelastic, an build up in meals costs won’t decrease its call for. With a view to fit the relief in delivery and fulfil its home intake, the MENA area is an increasing number of turning to imports.[d],[59] In 2024, the GCC international locations imported US$60 billion value of agri-food and seafood, with an annual expansion price of 6.7 %. Some of the exporters, India used to be the biggest provider with 12.6 % of exports, adopted via Brazil with 11 %, the USA with 5.7 %, and the Netherlands with 7.8 % export proportion.[60]
There’s a increasing hole between agricultural delivery and insist within the area. The area already has one of the most best cereal dependencies on the planet, which is coupled with increasing meals subsidies and reducing availability of land and water. Determine 5 displays the proportion of kilocalories fed on which are sourced from imports. A lower in agricultural manufacturing within the area may just result in a lack of about US$50 billion in web agricultural exports via 2050.[61] Rising import dependence may just additionally disclose the area to value volatility, as MENA international locations could be prone to geopolitical and world weather shocks.
Determine 5: Percentage of Kilocalories Equipped via Imports in MENA Nations
Supply: INRAE, CIRAD[62]
Intake Traits and Dietary Paradox
Urbanisation, geopolitical dangers, and revenue expansion have reshaped intake patterns within the MENA area.[63] City families with increased disposable earning devour extra processed meals, fat, sugar, end result, greens, dairy merchandise, and animal-sourced proteins; in rural families, diets nonetheless come with staples equivalent to maize, rice, millet, and cassava.[64] This means that the nutritional intake patterns of rural families are extra vulnerable to getting impacted via increasing environmental stressors, leaving them with restricted choices for his or her dietary consumption. Moreover, with better dependence on processed meals via imports, diets have turn out to be much less micronutrient-rich and extra calorie-dense, particularly amongst youngsters and youngsters.[65]
The MENA area additionally faces a double burden of malnutrition, pushed via unequal get entry to to nutritious meals: undernutrition persists in rural communities and North African international locations, whilst weight problems is extra prevalent amongst middle- and upper-income teams in city centres and Gulf international locations.[66] In keeping with the FAO, round 52 million folks within the area face continual undernutrition, whilst 58 % of adults are overweight.[67] The MENA area additionally presentations extremes within the meals safety spectrum—whilst the UAE and Israel carry out effectively with rankings above 74 within the Meals Safety Index 2022, Syria and Yemen are the worst-performing international locations globally with rankings of 36.3 and 40.1.[68]
Analysis of Present Reaction Mechanisms
1. Provide-Pushed Responses from Oil-Exporting Nations
Given excessive meals import dependencies, a number of GCC international locations have outsourced their meals manufacturing via land acquisitions and different commerce partnerships. Gulf international locations such because the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait have obtained over part one million hectares in different African economies equivalent to Sudan, Egypt, and Ethiopia.[69] Desk 4 signifies the present dimension below contract for vegetation in different GCC international locations, with UAE and Saudi Arabia rising as main buyers in African land offers. Explorations to amplify the UAE’s footprint in farm offers also are ongoing in Latin The us—UAE-based buyers are exploring land offers in Mexico and Colombia.[70]
Desk 4: Land Offers for Plants in Africa via GCC Nations (in Ha)
Nation
UAE
Saudi Arabia
Qatar
Kuwait
Egypt, Arab Rep.
119331
42000
Nil
Nil
Ethiopia
11000
322286
Nil
Nil
Namibia
220
Nil
Nil
Nil
Sierra Leone
23500
Nil
Nil
Nil
Sudan
65400
21271
203081
189777
Morocco
561
1200
Nil
Nil
Congo, Rep.
19000
Nil
Nil
Nil
Kenya
Nil
40468
40000
Nil
Mauritania
Nil
Nil
3200
3200
Algeria
Nil
Nil
1811
Nil
Supply: Land Matrix[71]
The UAE is an increasing number of leveraging its evolved delivery logistics (via sea, air, and street) to improve its meals delivery chains—it initiated the development of a brand new US$150-million assignment to amplify the Jebel Ali port in 2024.[72] This has given upward push to triangular partnerships between the GCC international locations, South Asia, and Africa for making certain meals safety, in which the GCC international locations supplement Africa’s land and labour with capital and logistics.
In spite of the increasing vogue of outsourcing meals manufacturing, analysis signifies that this way may have antagonistic results on meals safety, particularly within the rural areas.[73] In different circumstances the place land acquisitions happen with out ok attention or reimbursement to native communities, it has continuously contributed adversely to the social cloth and the surroundings. In a similar fashion, in different African countries, whilst land acquisitions ended in an build up in non-local staple crop manufacturing, they lowered the nutritional variety in native communities.[74] In lots of circumstances, land acquisitions don’t take Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) signs under consideration, exacerbating current sustainability-related issues for native communities. Thus, whilst outsourcing meals manufacturing can permit a number of international locations to get entry to and make sure meals delivery chains, they want to be supported with transparency and adherence to moral requirements. Obtaining countries will have to be certain that tough governance and nullify the unfavourable affects confronted via native communities. This may also be completed via making certain that native communities are well-compensated and supplied choice livelihoods in addition to higher use of ESG metrics.
Additional, different manner to outsource meals manufacturing and processing come with making an investment in meals parks and meals corridors, in addition to strengthening commerce agreements. The UAE and India have agreed to arrange a meals hall and a number of other meals parks to centralise manufacturing and procedure transport to the UAE.[75] UAE-based corporations also are making an investment closely in Asian and African international locations to construct food-security infrastructure within the type of chilly garage, terminals, and logistics hubs. In a similar fashion, within the I2U2 framework (India-Israel-UAE-US), leaders’ assertion dedicated to making an investment about US$2 billion to build in India and supply climate-smart applied sciences to scale back meals wastage and build up yields.[76]
The Saudi Agricultural and Cattle Funding Corporate (SALIC), a subsidiary of its sovereign wealth fund (Public Funding Fund), is making an investment in agribusinesses throughout international locations to improve sustainable meals delivery methods. It’s obtaining property in areas equivalent to South The us and Australia to extend get entry to to crucial imports equivalent to farm animals.[77] Moreover, the rustic is making an investment as much as US$700 million to increase particular financial zones and infrastructure in Africa for a number of sectors, together with agricultural items.[78]
The MENA international locations have additionally signed a number of commerce agreements which allow commerce diversification, minimize price lists, and toughen commerce that might ease large-scale meals imports. For example, the Ecu Loose Business Settlement between Ecu international locations and GCC states supplies preferential buying and selling prerequisites for the import of agricultural merchandise.[79] The UAE’s Complete Financial Partnership Agreements (CEPA) with international locations equivalent to India, Indonesia, Türkiye, Cambodia, and Jordan covers tariff relief, in particular for imports of staples, processed meals, rice, sugar, and meat.[80] In a similar fashion, the USA has FTAs with a number of MENA international locations, equivalent to Bahrain, Jordan, Oman and Morocco, for enhanced agri-food get entry to.[81] Moreover, Morocco, Egypt, Tunisia and the North Africa area have ongoing commerce agreements with the EU for advanced get entry to to agricultural items, in particular for cereals.[82]
As a long-term technique for making certain resilient meals delivery chains, making an investment in meals parks and devoted corridors is extra solid, because it addresses the ‘missing middle’ in delivery chains. Funding in infrastructure construction could also be characterized via decrease dangers than outsourcing manufacturing throughout the acquisition of farmlands, as in another country farmland regulate is continuously paired with clash and moral constraints. As well as, commerce agreements practice a rules-based formula with higher transparency and shock-proof mechanism.
2. Call for-Pushed Responses to Meals Provide Chain Shocks via Oil-Uploading Nations
In keeping with the COVID-19 pandemic, a 2022 find out about via El-Shal et al. on social protection nets and meals safety right through the pandemic highlights how prone families spoke back to shocks via smoothing intake or revenue.[83] Declines in revenue, emerging unemployment, and extending poverty altered meals intake patterns. When smoothing intake, families decreased or shifted spending, continuously promoting property or substituting against less expensive staples on the expense of extra nutritious meals equivalent to fruit and veggies.[84] Conversely, when smoothing revenue, families spoke back via depending on precautionary financial savings or social protection nets like coins switch programmes.[85] Right through the pandemic and in different circumstances, emergency coins transfers within the area ended in advanced momentary meals safety, however results fade within the medium to longer term with out complementary interventions. Let’s say, Lebanon’s humanitarian coins help programme advanced nutritional consumption right through the programme, however this have an effect on used to be weakened post-completion.[86]
In keeping with shocks from the Russia-Ukraine battle, oil-exporting international locations equivalent to Algeria, Libya, and GCC states had been ready to leverage further hydrocarbon revenues from the upward push in gasoline costs to mitigate the meals disaster.[87] Nations with out oil-export revenues have mitigated battle affects via changing meals subsidies with social protection programmes. Center-income international locations like Egypt and Algeria instituted such programmes focused on the deficient. Within the absence of subsidies, meals relief from overseas organisations or neighbouring GCC international locations supplied a momentary resolution, particularly for lower-income international locations in clash like Syria, Lebanon, and Libya.[88] Then again, declining humanitarian investment underscores the bounds of depending on exterior help over the long run.[89]
General, the MENA area has depended on subsidies to stabilise costs and buffer towards financial shocks. Then again, subsidies are more and more difficult to maintain because of shrinking fiscal areas and hovering debt ranges.[90] For instance, many MENA international locations subsidise agricultural inputs equivalent to seeds and fertilisers, which account for a big proportion of public spending and extra pressure debt in international locations like Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia.[91] Untargeted subsidies most commonly receive advantages higher-income farmers and families, perpetuating inequality. For example, even though meals subsidy focused on in Egypt has advanced, greater than part of the families within the wealthiest 20 % reap the advantages. Likewise, in Tunisia, the wealthiest families obtain thrice the in keeping with capita quantity gained via the poorest from meals and effort subsidies.[92] Whilst overseas lending establishments such because the World Financial Fund (IMF) have positioned power on calories subsidy reform, subsidies on meals staples have hardly ever shifted because of concern of social unrest and gaps in governance that inhibit the potential of reform.[93] This creates inefficiencies, since subsidies purpose marketplace distortions, the place decrease meals costs result in increased call for, overconsumption, and erroneous manufacturing will increase.
Traditionally, MENA international locations have leveraged participation within the digital water marketplace[e] to complement home meals manufacturing and improve meals safety.[94] Water-scarce international locations import water-intensive agricultural merchandise to scale back interior useful resource burdens and meet native meals calls for. Then again, this technique’s effectiveness and sustainability is decided via import diversification ranges, interior alignment between home agricultural and overseas commerce insurance policies, and ok valuation of tradeoffs between home manufacturing and imports.
Egypt’s technique, as an example, has developed against fostering imports of high-demand wheat, maize, and soybeans from Jap Europe, South The us, and the USA supplemented via a self-sufficiency coverage to supply 50 % of wheat internally.[95] This twin diversification and home manufacturing technique will have to theoretically be certain that some extent of coverage from unstable overseas markets. Then again, Egypt’s heavy dependence on Russia and Ukraine for wheat examined its technique’s resiliency, prompting additional delivery diversification and refocusing imports against commodities with much less publicity to shocks. Against this, Morocco used to be traditionally a net-importer of digital water within the type of cereal from Europe and Latin The us. Then again, fresh years have observed decreased digital water imports because of an export-oriented agricultural coverage favouring financial acquire from the manufacturing of high-value fruit and veggies. The manufacturing of those vegetation is reliant on water-intensive irrigation strategies and would possibly thus be unsustainable ultimately as the rustic is dependent upon an increasing number of precarious rainfall.[96]
Determine 6: Analysis of Trinity of Reaction Mechanisms
Supply: Authors’ personal
Desk 5: Present Responses to Meals Provide Chain Shocks
Reaction Kind
Reaction
Sustainability
Potency
Fairness
Call for-Pushed
Centered Money Transfers[97]
Unsustainable within the long-term with out sustainable livelihood pathways
Environment friendly for transient shocks as it improves intake, get entry to, and meals safety quickly (e.g., Lebanon, Yemen, Jordan)
Calls for ok focused on to forestall unfavourable spillovers like tensions between prone teams excluded from the money switch
Meals Subsidies[98]
Unsustainable within the long-term, however difficult to reform within the momentary
Inefficient as it will increase fiscal burden and diverts sources clear of different public services and products, and reasons financial distortions
In spite of development, meals subsidies generally tend to profit middle- and high-income teams (e.g., in Egypt and Tunisia)
Humanitarian Meals Help[99]
Unsustainable within the long-term; calls for complementary tasks to succeed in resilience
Environment friendly for transient shocks as it maintains meals get entry to
Broken infrastructure, lack of confidence, and gasoline shortages obstruct equitable meals distribution and get entry to
Digital Water Imports
Sustainable within the long-term when paired with water charge valuation, climate-resilient meals manufacturing, and diversification of import resources
Environment friendly for regulating home water and energy-use
Doable inequity in water-exporting international locations if commerce isn’t aligned with the real charge of water
Provide-Pushed
Outsourcing
Unsustainable in the long run because of prices related to moral and ESG constraints
Environment friendly for development delivery chains with custom designed intake necessities
Inequitable because of unfavourable have an effect on on native communities
Meals Park and Land Acquisitions
Sustainable within the long-term because of filling the ‘missing middle’ hole in infrastructure construction
Environment friendly for development change routes and shock-resilient delivery chains
Equitable with mutual regional advantages
Business Diversification
Sustainable because of rules-based agreements for different commerce companions
Environment friendly for making certain change commerce companions
Equitable with mutual advantages for commerce companions
Supply: Authors’ personal
Coverage Suggestions
This evaluation displays that political balance and financial capability outline surprise have an effect on depth and coping capability.[100] Pursuing self-sufficiency isn’t possible for many MENA international locations given the range in meals calls for, land, and water constraints. Thus, mitigating meals delivery chain shocks to maintain resilient meals methods and safeguard meals safety calls for multi-pronged answers that maintain meals delivery and be sure that shoppers retain bodily and monetary get entry to to meals. The next suggestions are adapted to the political and monetary capability of MENA international locations, incorporating delivery and demand-driven methods.
1. Reallocate capital, water, land, and technological sources.
Top-Source of revenue Economies
Top-income, oil-exporting international locations with sturdy sovereign wealth price range and financial diversification imperatives such because the GCC will have to strategically distribute financing between infrastructure, coaching, and analysis and construction for sustainable meals methods.[f] This cluster has the monetary capability and political will to catalyse innovation for meals safety and meals formula modernisation.[101] Agriculture accommodates lower than 3 % of GDP for every nation, so attaining self-sufficient manufacturing is extremely unrealistic given weather restraints and the range of shopper call for (see Desk 1).
In spite of plentiful capital, investments are closely skewed against agri-technologies equivalent to vertical and indoor farming, which basically produce high-value vegetation like leafy vegetables and don’t meet broader meals basket wishes or dietary requirements.[102] Additionally, many well-liked agri-technologies are imported from temperate areas and are energy-intensive, requiring further optimisation to fulfill native warmth and humidity prerequisites.[103]
Agri-tech investments will have to be directed against fostering analysis and construction and optimising locally-rooted manufacturing of drought-tolerant crop sorts, open-field farming, and web homes, and bettering meals garage and lowering meals loss and waste. Proceeding to have interaction in digital water buying and selling will lend a hand supplement imminent commerce partnerships and cut back home dependency on water-intensive meals manufacturing.[104] Exploring the feasibility of cleaner gasoline choices like sun for desalination would additionally lend a hand cut back further calories burdens.
Center-Source of revenue Economies
Center-income, oil-exporting international locations like Algeria and Iran can leverage further state expenditures from oil-revenue spikes to take in shocks to meals delivery chains. Center-income, oil-importers like Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia, the place the rural proportion of GDP wavers between 9 and 14 %, will have to stability the growth of agricultural manufacturing with financial and useful resource depletion implications. Nations like Egypt and Morocco have expanded agricultural operations for financial construction functions, but they will have to stability high-value vegetation for export as opposed to fostering native subsistence farming and cover-cropping for home intake.[105],[106]
Moreover, incorporating water-energy-food issues (WEF) in coverage making plans is the most important to verify calories and agriculture don’t compete for restricted water sources. Overcoming water shortage obstacles calls for an built-in water control way keen on demand-side control via agricultural subsidy reform, alignment of siloed insurance policies, and diversification of virtual-import resources against inexpensive and solid meals providers. Redesigning agricultural subsidies to replicate the real cost and prices of water use would incentivise environment friendly farming practices and smarter water useful resource allocation.
Aligning agriculture, commerce, and social protection web insurance policies would permit a versatile executive reaction, combating an over- or under-reaction right through meals delivery chain shocks. Since meals import diversification capability may also be constrained via the focus of overseas providers, those international locations will have to additionally put money into climate-resilient agricultural practices. For example, improving efforts to toughen soil fertility and control would lend a hand bridge this hole.[107] Even though Jordan is house to a modernising meals manufacturing formula, the dietary results of refugee teams will have to be thought to be in meals formula making plans.[108] Given Djibouti’s minimum agricultural manufacturing and excessive meals lack of confidence from undernourishment and emerging weight problems, the rustic will have to leverage its a hit ventures to increase social protection nets and wean off meals relief dependency.[109]
Center-Source of revenue, War-Affected Economies
Center-income, conflict-affected, oil-importing international locations like Libya and Iraq will have to optimise useful resource distribution, toughen agricultural sector productiveness, and increase focused social protection web insurance policies. For each international locations, agriculture composes lower than 5 % of GDP. In Libya, meals lack of confidence stems from a loss of financial get entry to somewhat than availability. Within the momentary, meals safety will probably be perfect addressed via humanitarian help, however investments in drought-resistant applied sciences for manufacturing within the drylands will lend a hand toughen long-term meals safety.
In Iraq, the potential of expanding wheat yield is excessive. As the rustic recovers from clash, directing investments against climate-smart agriculture to toughen yields will lend a hand shut the wheat import and manufacturing hole. Creating focused social insurance policies would additionally toughen meals get entry to.[110] Lebanon could also be recuperating from clash and contending with an inflow of refugees affected by malnutrition. Whilst provide executive funding against agriculture is low, current sources may also be reallocated clear of vegetation produced past the native complete self-sufficiency stage to be exported into low-self-sufficiency, high-nutrition, low-resource-intensive vegetation which would cut back reliance on overseas imports.[111] The continuing clash within the West Financial institution and Gaza necessitates quick coverage consideration against enabling bodily get entry to to meals relief and vouchers.
Low-Source of revenue, War-Affected Economies
With declining overseas relief and decreased efforts from regional establishments, conflict-affected, low-income international locations like Syria and Yemen can flip to Ecu partnerships to fill the investment hole for emergency meals relief within the momentary. Then again, this dangers developing a brand new formula of dependency. Thus, leveraging the capability of native and regional actors to ship meals donations and wean off donor-driven humanitarian help within the long-term is the most important. Partnering with the non-public sector to increase infrastructure that hyperlinks displaced communities to financing mechanisms that may grant them get entry to to meals additionally items a viable choice.[112] Transferring reliance on meals relief dependency via insurance policies that improve financial livelihoods within the agriculture sector would additionally lend a hand build up meals get entry to within the long-term.[113]
2. Put money into high quality infrastructure and cut back commerce bottlenecks.
Top-Source of revenue Economies
For top-income MENA economies such because the GCC international locations, maximum carry out rather effectively with regards to commerce logistics. In keeping with the International Financial institution’s Logistics Efficiency Index (LPI) 2023, the UAE tops the MENA listing with a rating of four.0 out of five.0, adopted via Israel (3.6), Bahrain (3.5), Qatar (3.5), and Saudi Arabia (3.0).[114] With the exception of for the UAE, the remainder of the high-income international locations’ rankings vary from 3.6 to a few.5, above the worldwide common of three.0. Then again, regardless of the above-average world benchmark, the area faces obstacles because of chokepoints in commerce routes. Freight volatility is not unusual for commerce routes connecting MENA international locations, and the most important bottlenecks come with the Purple Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.
For the GCC international locations, their strategic geographical location may also be leveraged to get entry to choice commerce routes, cut back logistical hurdles, and make sure meals safety for the area. The area can accrue advantages from Asia, Africa, and Europe via enhanced investments in infrastructure and devoted commerce corridors. Nations such because the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, have already enhanced their operations to seek out other ways and hook up with Asia throughout the Jebel Ali port, the King Abdullah port, and the Hamad port. Land connectivity within the area has additionally been reinforced via the Gulf Railway assignment, which seeks to glue the GCC international locations (from Kuwait to Oman) and cut back reliance on maritime commerce.[115] The GCC Railway Undertaking may give choice gateways that may cut back the time spent and wastage for perishable items via combating congestion and cost-heavy re-routing within the area.
The assignment may also be additional built-in into the proposed financial corridors, such because the India-Center East-Europe Financial Hall (IMEC) and the Center East-Africa Hall, to verify an economical ship-to-rail transit community that dietary supplements the present maritime and street routes between India, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, and Europe. The Saudi railway community is already deliberate to connect to the UAE’s Etihad Rail at Ghuwaifat, leaving a lacking hyperlink of 300 km from al-Haditha in Saudi Arabia to Haifa in Israel.[116] The combination into proposed and current financial corridors may give dual-coast get entry to for African routes via no longer solely the UAE but additionally Saudi Arabia and Oman. The Hall can come with devoted meals terminals that deal with grains, chilly storages, and harmonised customs.
Center-Source of revenue Economies
Not like high-income MENA economies, middle-income international locations equivalent to Djibouti, Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria, Iraq, Iran, and Libya have weaker linkages with regards to customs clearances and transport-related infrastructure. With the exception of for Egypt, different international locations within the bracket have LPI ranks not up to 3.0 and constantly lag in clearance occasions, documentation, and predictability.[117]
At the customs clearance finish, rapid lanes and single-window methods may also be constructed to supply quicker clearances. Sanitary and Phytosanitary certificate (SPS) may also be digitalised to permit a faster paperless clearance process. Additional, middle-income MENA international locations can leverage inland meals corridors, permitting economies to cushion maritime shocks. The 90-km-long Djibouti Regional Financial Hall (DREC) connects Djibouti to Ethiopia and is vital in making certain meals safety for the rustic.[118] The functioning hall can support sourcing diversification for different MENA international locations and be prolonged to Egypt as a bridge hub, connecting Purple Sea ports to the Mediterranean area. In a similar fashion, grain ports, inland clearance hubs, silos and SPS trying out amenities may also be constructed alongside North Africa, catering to Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt.
Low-Source of revenue Economies
For low-income MENA international locations like Yemen and Syria, LPI rankings are a few of the lowest globally, which interprets into increased prices and longer transit occasions. Each Yemen and Syria are closely reliant on imports to fulfill the call for for meals; thus, it turns into extra the most important for the economies to verify tough delivery chains for agricultural items. In Yemen, critical conflicts within the area have ended in the destruction of cranes on the Al Hodeidah port and a ban on industrial boxes.[119] This diverted transport site visitors to Aden, which has no longer solely added power on a unmarried port and double taxation but additionally underutilisation of alternative ports.
The long-term resolution lies in restoring the international locations’ logistics infrastructure via public-private partnerships (PPPs), which is able to mobilise inner most capital when budgets are restricted. This contains viability investment the place capex is publicly funded and the terminals and meals garage nodes are run privately below rent to stabilise operations. In 2025, Syria signed an settlement value US$800 million with a UAE-based logistics corporate to rebuild the rustic’s maritime infrastructure, support modernisation of terminal operations, streamline shipment dealing with, and facilitate smoother commerce.[120] The answer, alternatively, calls for added efforts against mediation to verify the secure motion of products and elimination of import restrictions at the Yemeni and Syrian ports.
3. Leverage market-based tools to control charge and provide volatility.
Commodity markets are thought to be the most important in figuring out charge transparency, bettering product high quality, lowering marketplace menace, and lowering transaction prices.[121] Within the MENA area, just a few international locations have commodity exchanges for agricultural items—together with the Egyptian Commodity Change (Egycomex) and the Iran Mercantile Change. The established order of a MENA Commodity Change can have the benefit of higher charge indicators, menace transfers, and standardised contracts.
For a number of MENA international locations, meals wastage comes from a loss of garage and logistics; a structured commodity alternate can crowd-in funding to warehouses and meet high quality requirements. The warehouse receipt formula permits saved agricultural commodities to function collateral towards monetary tools. The formula allows farmers to make gross sales all through the yr as a substitute of a specific season. It additionally permits governments to acquire from qualified warehouses quicker right through a disaster. For massive importers, hich come with maximum MENA international locations—exchanges throughout the derivatives markets supply control of charge menace right through charge spikes. Malawi is an instance of ways an import-reliant nation mitigated meals safety dangers via the usage of hedging tools. The rustic purchased bodily name choices for maize, which enabled charge coverage and supply of 60,000 metric lots of maize right through charge spikes.[122] The commodity alternate markets, alternatively, require an efficient regulatory mechanism to forestall marketplace manipulation.[123] Thus, development commodity exchanges calls for MENA economies to have a strong and solid regulatory mechanism in position. Different demanding situations related to utilising charge mechanisms come with a loss of monetary wisdom, technical capability and bodily infrastructure.
Conclusion
The MENA area’s arid setting and restricted arable land pressure restricted home meals manufacturing, leading to a reliance on meals imports to fulfill native call for.[124] This import dependence renders the area liable to geopolitical and environmental pressures. MENA’s relatively low score at the International Meals Safety Index for adaptation and sustainable construction additional underscores the want to construct holistic meals formula resilience methods.[125] Given the variety of meals delivery chain shocks, enterprise a proactive way is the most important to mitigate momentary affects and safeguard long-term meals safety. This contains optimising climate-resilient meals manufacturing the place appropriate, enabling meals get entry to via structured social insurance policies, and strengthening meals commerce corridors, garage, and infrastructure to counterpoint home meals availability.
In anticipation of shocks, expanding meals availability and diet may also be completed via reallocating capital against R&D for drought-resistant and nutritious crop sorts, harnessing digital water commerce in high- and middle-income MENA international locations, and making an investment in climate-smart agriculture in arable middle-income economies. In lower- to middle-income conflict-affected international locations, pre-emptively growing focused and powerful social protection web insurance policies to toughen get entry to, particularly amongst prone refugee teams, is the most important. Additionally, maintaining native financial actions amidst clash, along with coins transfers, would lend a hand take care of meals get entry to.
Meals delivery chains may also be secure and enhanced via bettering infrastructure, which is able to permit dependable flows, affordability, much less spoilage, and balance. MENA economies will have to put money into the digitalisation of port operations, establish other ways to minimise time, combine into inter-regional commerce corridors, and leverage inland transportation throughout the GCC Railway Undertaking. Devoted trendy meals terminals with grain dealing with, chilly garage, and harmonised customs can additional clean the availability chains. Center of attention may also be laid on strengthening customs clearance and leveraging viability investment with public-private partnerships to rebuild and operationalise commerce infrastructure. Commodity Exchanges are related for the area to struggle charge dangers and save you meals wastage. The efforts, alternatively, want to be supplemented with sturdy regulatory frameworks and powerful infrastructure. In spite of the area’s excessive import dependence, focused efforts can improve MENA international locations’ responses and mitigate meals lack of confidence right through meals delivery chain shocks.
Shruti Jain is Affiliate Fellow, Centre for Construction Research, ORF.
Leigh Mante is Junior Fellow, Power and Local weather Alternate Programme, ORF Center East.
All perspectives expressed on this newsletter are only the ones of the authors, and don’t constitute the Observer Analysis Basis, both in its entirety or its officers and body of workers.
Endnotes
[a] In March 2026, the USA attacked a desalination plant in southern Iran, and Iran retaliated via attacking a desalination facility in Bahrain.
[b] Outlined as agriculture’s proportion of presidency expenditure divided via agriculture’s value-added proportion of GDP.
[c] The GCC international locations are the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman.
[d] Some 40 % of MENA’s present meals necessities is being equipped via imports.
[e] This idea refers back to the quantity of water used within the manufacturing of traded agricultural items and explains the volume of water not directly traded between international locations.
[f] The GCC’s maximum energetic Sovereign Wealth Price range come with the Saudi Public Funding Fund, the Qatar Funding Authority, the Abu Dhabi Funding Authority, Mubadala, ADQ, and the Kuwait Funding Authority.
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[44] Al-Saidi, “Caught off Guard and Beaten.”
[45] Al-Saidi, “Caught off Guard and Beaten.”
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